IMD update: Heavy rain alert for TN, Puducherry extended to 4 more days

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Bay stirs on two fronts as north-east monsoon gathers steam even as super typhoon Champi puts Taiwan, further to east-north-east, on nationwide alert

By Vinson Kurian

Updated - October 22, 2026 at 11:56 AM.

Massive rain storms piled up over the south-east Arabian Sea off Kerala and Lakshadweep Islands as a low-pressure area braced to drift in across from south-west Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in

Wednesday’s low-pressure area over the south-west Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast, edged closer to land, with its western flank brushing the coast early on Thursday. The system is helping anchor the north-east monsoon flow over the South Peninsula even as the Bay prepares to spring another surprise, with a second low brewing over the North Andaman Sea.

The existing low off Tamil Nadu is expected to make move across the southern tip of the Peninsula, cross south Kerala and emerge into the south-east Arabian Sea, and could leave a broad swathe of the region soaked.

Morning satellite pictures

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted isolated very heavy rainfall (11-20 cm) for four days over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal; over Kerala and Mahe today (Thursday) and on Saturday and Sunday; and over Lakshadweep on Friday and Saturday. Morning satellite pictures showed action is building on both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, with rain clouds holding sway over the Lakshadweep Islands and off Kerala coast; Ongole-Nellore stretch south coastal Andhra Pradesh; and Cuddalore, Tindivanam, Tiruvannamalai, Salem, Tiruchrappalli and Madura in Tamil Nadu.

Chennai woke up to overcast skies and rain, with these conditions possibly persisting until around 6 pm. The skies may then clear, but the respite could prove short-lived, with clouds expected to regroup and trigger thunderstorms from around 10 pm. Bengaluru may enjoy a largely calm and clear morning and afternoon. The lull may break by early evening, around 4 pm, as thunderstorms move in.

Heavy rain over Andamans

The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands over next seven days, alongside fairly widespread to widespread rain. The islands have repeatedly found themselves in the path of incoming seasonal low-pressure systems, with another now taking shape over the North Andaman Sea. Further north, isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Odisha on Tuesday and Wednesday, suggesting that some of the Bay’s rain-bearing activity could spill towards the north-east, away from the immediate Tamil Nadu coast.

Isolated heavy rains for TN, Puducherry

Isolated very heavy rainfall of 7–11 cm is likely over South Interior Karnataka for four days beginning Thursday. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal could see isolated heavy rain on Monday; Kerala and Mahe on Friday and again on Monday and Tuesday; and Lakshadweep on Thursday and Sunday.

The IMD expects the circulation over the North Andaman Sea to move west-north-westward and develop into a low-pressure area over the adjoining south-east and east-central Bay of Bengal by Friday. It is then expected to veer north-west, bringing the system closer to the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts, while allowing it to strengthen further. Its eventual destination, however, remains a bigger question mark. 

Stronger system over Bay

Numerical weather models suggest the system could recurve north-eastward towards the Odisha and West Bengal coasts. The morning bulletin has offered little indication of just how intense the developing system might become. But numerical models are hinting at a potentially powerful weather system taking shape over the Bay, particularly if a third successor ‘low’ trailing it eventually merges with the first and accelerates its intensification.

A western disturbance moving across north-west India could have the final say on the system’s trajectory by influencing the steering currents. Current model guidance points towards a track that would take the system away from the immediate Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts and towards Odisha and West Bengal. 

Super typhoon Champi

Taiwan, to further north-east of Bay, on Thursday issued a land warning ahead of the arrival of powerful typhoon Champi and cancelled more than 100 flights. The storm was expected to brush past the island’s north-eastern coast before gradually weakening as it approached. Champi, which had earlier reached super-typhoon intensity and ranked among the Pacific’s strongest storms this year, has weakened somewhat overnight. 

It was downgraded from class-topping Category 5 to Category 4 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, but remained a formidable system, with gusts exceeding 227 km/hr near its centre, Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration said. The storm was about 520 km south-east of Taiwan’s southern tip, having passed dangerously close to the northern Philippines through Wednesday night.

El Nino and typhoons

Forecasts showed Champi skirting north-eastern Taiwan before turning north towards the Chinese coast and eventually heading towards southern Japan. Its ferocity offers a reminder that even a powerful El Niño in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific does not put the western Pacific’s typhoon machinery out of action. 

El Niño can shift the distribution of clouds and alter odds of storm formation, but doesn’t impose a basin-wide ban on typhoons. Where warm ocean waters, abundant moisture, favourable circulation and low vertical wind shear converge, western North Pacific that lies adjacent to south-east Asia, can still churn out exceptional storms. Champi is a striking example of that distinction, meteorologists point out.

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